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Model favoured Bournemouth · expected score 1–2 · actual 0–0.
The model rates Burnley lower than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 94% | 6% |
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| 4.5 | 16% | 84% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Burnley and Bournemouth played out a goalless draw at Turf Moor in a contest where the away side dominated without finding the back of the net. Despite enjoying a significant advantage in possession and attacking intent, Bournemouth failed to convert their chances when it mattered most. Both Enes Ünal and David Brooks squandered big opportunities for the visitors in the closing stages, whilst Burnley's Zian Flemming missed a presentable chance in the second half. The stalemate leaves both sides searching for a breakthrough.
The underlying metrics tell a story of Bournemouth's frustration, as they accumulated 2.83 xG from 22 shots compared to Burnley's 1.34 xG from 15 efforts. The away side's dominance was evident throughout, yet clinical finishing proved elusive when it mattered. Pre-match predictions had favoured Bournemouth at 0.54 win probability against Burnley's 0.22, but they were unable to translate their superiority into three points. Both teams departed with a point apiece from a match that could easily have gone either way had one side converted their chances.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).