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Model favoured Brentford · expected score 2–2 · actual 0–0.
The model rates Brentford higher than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 97% | 3% |
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 4.5 | 26% | 74% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Bournemouth and Brentford played out a goalless draw at the Vitality Stadium on Matchday 29. Despite dominating possession and creating significantly more chances, the home side failed to break through a resilient Brentford defence. Marcus Tavernier squandered three big chances for Bournemouth, hitting the post in the 48th minute and missing further opportunities in the 59th and 45th minutes. Brentford offered little attacking threat but remained organised throughout, frustrating their hosts in what proved a frustrating afternoon for the dominant side.
The underlying statistics heavily favoured Bournemouth, who accumulated 1.96 xG from thirteen shots compared to Brentford's 0.39 xG from just five attempts. Tavernier's profligacy proved costly; his three big chances alone represented significant xG value that went unconverted. Pre-match models had suggested Brentford were slight favourites with a 42 per cent win probability against Bournemouth's 35 per cent, but the match narrative belonged entirely to the home side, who created and controlled but ultimately could not capitalise on their superiority.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).