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Model favoured Crystal Palace · expected score 2–1 · actual 0–0.
The model rates Crystal Palace higher than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 95% | 5% |
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| 4.5 | 18% | 82% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Crystal Palace and Brighton & Hove Albion played out a goalless draw at Selhurst Park in an even contest that failed to produce a breakthrough despite Palace's dominance in possession. Palace had the better of the match, registering ten shots to Brighton's seven, yet neither side could convert their chances into goals. The biggest swing in match probability came in the ninetieth minute, moving marginally in Brighton's favour.
The underlying data suggested the result was fair given the balance of play. Palace accumulated 0.73 xG whilst Brighton managed 0.38, reflecting their superior control throughout. However, the lack of clinical finishing from either team meant the points were shared. The pre-match win probability had favoured Palace at 0.44, with Brighton's chances assessed at 0.31, though both sides ultimately failed to capitalise on their respective opportunities.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).