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Model favoured Liverpool · expected score 2–2 · actual 0–0.
The model rates Liverpool lower than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 96% | 4% |
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 3.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 4.5 | 23% | 77% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Liverpool and Leeds United played out a goalless draw at Anfield on Matchday 19, despite the home side's clear dominance in chances created. Liverpool registered 19 shots to Leeds' four, with Hugo Ekitiké missing a big chance in the 33rd minute. Leeds had their own opportunity when Ethan Ampadu's effort was saved in the 32nd minute, while Florian Wirtz also saw a chance saved early on. The match swung marginally in Leeds' favour late on, but neither side could break the deadlock.
The underlying metrics reflected Liverpool's superiority throughout the contest. The home side accumulated 2.12 xG compared to Leeds' 0.68, indicating a performance the hosts should have converted into victory. Liverpool's attacking dominance went unrewarded, while Leeds defended resolutely to secure a point despite limited attacking involvement. The pre-match win probability had favoured Liverpool at 0.41, with Leeds given a 0.35 chance of success.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).