Transfer report card

Bundesliga 2025/26— did the new arrivals deliver? We predict each signing's attacking output from their previous season (adjusted for league strength) and compare it to what they actually produced.

Signings tracked

Model correlation

0.89

predicted vs actual

Avg error

0.09

output per 90

Player	Move	Predicted	Actual	vs model
Tiago Tomás FW	VfL Wolfsburg → VfB Stuttgart	0.35	0.68	+0.33
Sheraldo Becker FW	Real Sociedad → 1. FSV Mainz 05La Liga→Bundesliga	0.27	0.60	+0.33
Bilal El Khannouss MF	Leicester City → VfB StuttgartPL→Bundesliga	0.23	0.42	+0.19
Marius Bülter FW	TSG Hoffenheim → 1. FC Köln	0.33	0.42	+0.09
Eren Dinkçi MF	SC Freiburg → 1. FC Heidenheim	0.25	0.32	+0.07
Tom Bischof MF	TSG Hoffenheim → FC Bayern München	0.25	0.31	+0.06
Arthur Chaves DF	TSG Hoffenheim → FC Augsburg	0.07	0.12	+0.06
Loïc Badé DF	Sevilla → Bayer 04 LeverkusenLa Liga→Bundesliga	0.04	0.09	+0.06
Yukinari Sugawara DF	Southampton → SV Werder BremenPL→Bundesliga	0.14	0.18	+0.04
Albert Sambi Lokonga MF	Sevilla → Hamburger SVLa Liga→Bundesliga	0.17	0.21	+0.04
James Sands MF	New York City FC → FC St. PauliMLS→Bundesliga	0.04	0.08	+0.03
Derrick Köhn DF	SV Werder Bremen → 1. FC Union Berlin	0.16	0.18	+0.03
Philipp Treu DF	FC St. Pauli → SC Freiburg	0.12	0.14	+0.02
Jonathan Tah DF	Bayer 04 Leverkusen → FC Bayern München	0.05	0.06	+0.01
Yannik Engelhardt MF	Como → Borussia M'gladbachSerie A→Bundesliga	0.12	0.12	+0.00
Shuto Machino FW	Holstein Kiel → Borussia M'gladbach	0.37	0.36	-0.01
Bernardo DF	VfL Bochum 1848 → TSG Hoffenheim	0.07	0.04	-0.03
Stefan Posch DF	Atalanta → 1. FSV Mainz 05Serie A→Bundesliga	0.10	0.07	-0.03
Nicolai Remberg MF	Holstein Kiel → Hamburger SV	0.10	0.07	-0.03
Luis Díaz FW	Liverpool → FC Bayern MünchenPL→Bundesliga	0.97	0.90	-0.08
Moritz Jenz DF	1. FSV Mainz 05 → VfL Wolfsburg	0.12	0.04	-0.08
Ritsu Doan FW	SC Freiburg → Eintracht Frankfurt	0.39	0.30	-0.09
Arnaud Kalimuendo FW	Stade Rennais → Eintracht FrankfurtLigue 1→Bundesliga	0.48	0.37	-0.11
Lorenz Assignon DF	Stade Rennais → VfB StuttgartLigue 1→Bundesliga	0.23	0.11	-0.12
Jonathan Burkardt FW	1. FSV Mainz 05 → Eintracht Frankfurt	0.83	0.70	-0.13
Nicolas Jackson FW	Chelsea → FC Bayern MünchenPL→Bundesliga	1.02	0.83	-0.20

Attacking output = non-penalty xG + expected assists per 90. Prediction applies our persistence and league-strength factors to the player's prior season. Minimum 900 minutes in both seasons. Goalkeepers and purely defensive value are not covered.