Roma vs Fiorentinaprediction

Serie A 2025/26 · Matchday 1 · Mon, 24 Aug 2026

Model forecast

win / draw / loss probabilities from the rolling-strength model

RomaFiorentina

Roma 64%Draw 23%Fiorentina 13%

Expected score

2–1

Over 2.5 goals

42%

Both teams score

37%

The rolling-strength model makes Roma the favourites at 64% — Roma 64%, the draw 23% and Fiorentina 13%. The most likely scoreline is 2–1, with a 42% chance of more than 2.5 goals. These are the model's own probabilities, not bookmaker odds — analysis only.