Transfer report card

Serie A 2025/26— did the new arrivals deliver? We predict each signing's attacking output from their previous season (adjusted for league strength) and compare it to what they actually produced.

Signings tracked

Model correlation

0.71

predicted vs actual

Avg error

0.09

output per 90

Player	Move	Predicted	Actual	vs model
Nikola Krstović FW	Lecce → Atalanta	0.42	0.92	+0.50
Samuele Ricci MF	Torino → Milan	0.07	0.30	+0.23
Álvaro Morata FW	Milan → Como	0.33	0.53	+0.20
Antonio Sanabria FW	Torino → Cremonese	0.21	0.34	+0.12
Matteo Cancellieri FW	Parma → Lazio	0.19	0.32	+0.12
Vitinha FW	Paris Saint-Germain → GenoaLigue 1→Serie A	0.19	0.31	+0.12
Leo Østigård DF	Stade Rennais → GenoaLigue 1→Serie A	0.04	0.16	+0.11
Sebastiano Esposito FW	Empoli → Cagliari	0.30	0.38	+0.07
Andrea Pinamonti FW	Genoa → Sassuolo	0.30	0.37	+0.07
Ange-Yoan Bonny FW	Parma → Inter	0.43	0.47	+0.04
Riccardo Sottil FW	Milan → Lecce	0.22	0.26	+0.04
Alieu Fadera FW	Como → Sassuolo	0.22	0.26	+0.04
Lorenzo Colombo FW	Empoli → Genoa	0.30	0.33	+0.04
Danilo Cataldi MF	Fiorentina → Lazio	0.13	0.17	+0.04
Sebastian Walukiewicz DF	Torino → Sassuolo	0.03	0.06	+0.03
Sam Beukema DF	Bologna → Napoli	0.09	0.12	+0.03
Mattéo Guendouzi MF	Lazio →	0.14	0.17	+0.03
Ardian Ismajli DF	Empoli → Torino	0.01	0.04	+0.03
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia MF	Venezia → Fiorentina	0.17	0.20	+0.03
Alessandro Zanoli DF	Genoa → Udinese	0.10	0.12	+0.03
Daniele Ghilardi DF	Hellas Verona → Roma	0.05	0.07	+0.02
Alberto Grassi MF	Empoli → Cremonese	0.07	0.08	+0.01
Nemanja Matić MF	Olympique Lyonnais → SassuoloLigue 1→Serie A	0.05	0.06	+0.00
Mikael Ellertsson MF	Venezia → Genoa	0.11	0.11	+0.00
Martín Payero MF	Udinese → Cremonese	0.16	0.16	+0.00
Rasmus Højlund FW	Manchester United → NapoliPL→Serie A	0.47	0.47	-0.00
Youssef Maleh MF	Empoli → Cremonese	0.10	0.10	-0.00
Federico Baschirotto DF	Lecce → Cremonese	0.04	0.04	-0.00
Warren Bondo MF	Milan → Cremonese	0.02	0.02	-0.01
Roberto Piccoli FW	Cagliari → Fiorentina	0.45	0.44	-0.01
Jonathan David FW	Lille → JuventusLigue 1→Serie A	0.61	0.60	-0.01
Neil El Aynaoui MF	RC Lens → RomaLigue 1→Serie A	0.23	0.22	-0.02
Simon Sohm MF	Parma → Fiorentina	0.16	0.13	-0.03
Giuseppe Pezzella DF	Empoli → Cremonese	0.12	0.09	-0.04
Pervis Estupiñán DF	Brighton & Hove Albion → MilanPL→Serie A	0.17	0.13	-0.04
Morten Thorsby MF	Genoa → Cremonese	0.25	0.21	-0.04
Woyo Coulibaly DF	Parma → Sassuolo	0.08	0.04	-0.04
Manuel Akanji DF	Manchester City → InterPL→Serie A	0.13	0.08	-0.05
Nadir Zortea DF	Cagliari → Bologna	0.20	0.14	-0.05
Federico Bernardeschi FW	Toronto FC → BolognaMLS→Serie A	0.44	0.38	-0.06
Miguel Gutiérrez DF	Girona FC → NapoliLa Liga→Serie A	0.23	0.16	-0.06
Koni De Winter DF	Genoa → Milan	0.14	0.07	-0.06
Jay Idzes DF	Venezia → Sassuolo	0.07	0.01	-0.07
Sebastiano Luperto DF	Cagliari → Cremonese	0.11	0.04	-0.07
Daniel Maldini FW	Atalanta → Lazio	0.49	0.41	-0.08
Gabriel Strefezza FW	Como → Parma	0.31	0.23	-0.08
Alexis Saelemaekers DF	Roma → Milan	0.37	0.28	-0.09
Luís Henrique DF	Olympique de Marseille → InterLigue 1→Serie A	0.35	0.17	-0.17
Adrien Rabiot MF	Olympique de Marseille → MilanLigue 1→Serie A	0.45	0.27	-0.18
Luka Modrić MF	Real Madrid → MilanLa Liga→Serie A	0.41	0.19	-0.22
M'Bala Nzola FW	RC Lens → SassuoloLigue 1→Serie A	0.67	0.40	-0.27
Jamie Vardy FW	Leicester City → CremonesePL→Serie A	0.57	0.27	-0.30
Kevin De Bruyne FW	Manchester City → NapoliPL→Serie A	0.95	0.41	-0.54

Attacking output = non-penalty xG + expected assists per 90. Prediction applies our persistence and league-strength factors to the player's prior season. Minimum 900 minutes in both seasons. Goalkeepers and purely defensive value are not covered.