Transfer report card

Serie A 2024/25— did the new arrivals deliver? We predict each signing's attacking output from their previous season (adjusted for league strength) and compare it to what they actually produced.

Signings tracked

Model correlation

0.67

predicted vs actual

Avg error

0.09

output per 90

Player	Move	Predicted	Actual	vs model
Mateo Retegui MF	Genoa → Atalanta	0.25	1.05	+0.81
Boulaye Dia FW	Salernitana → Lazio	0.30	0.57	+0.27
Christian Kouamé FW	Fiorentina → Empoli	0.23	0.49	+0.26
Romelu Lukaku FW	Roma → Napoli	0.38	0.63	+0.25
Matías Soulé FW	Frosinone → Roma	0.34	0.51	+0.18
Máximo Perrone MF	Las Palmas → ComoLa Liga→Serie A	0.03	0.19	+0.16
Assane Diao FW	Real Betis → ComoLa Liga→Serie A	0.29	0.44	+0.16
Lazar Samardžić MF	Udinese → Atalanta	0.27	0.43	+0.15
Yacine Adli MF	Milan → Fiorentina	0.13	0.28	+0.15
Alexis Saelemaekers DF	Bologna → Roma	0.28	0.42	+0.14
Roberto Piccoli FW	Lecce → Cagliari	0.37	0.50	+0.13
Andrea Pinamonti FW	Sassuolo → Genoa	0.21	0.33	+0.12
Pontus Almqvist FW	Lecce → Parma	0.16	0.28	+0.12
Juan Miranda DF	Real Betis → BolognaLa Liga→Serie A	0.17	0.29	+0.11
Gaetano Oristanio MF	Cagliari → Venezia	0.23	0.34	+0.10
Gabriel Strefezza FW	Lecce → Como	0.25	0.35	+0.10
Khéphren Thuram MF	Nice → JuventusLigue 1→Serie A	0.23	0.33	+0.10
Manu Koné MF	Borussia M'gladbach → RomaBundesliga→Serie A	0.15	0.24	+0.09
Fabio Miretti MF	Juventus → Genoa	0.23	0.32	+0.09
Răzvan Marin MF	Empoli → Cagliari	0.19	0.28	+0.09
Danilo Cataldi MF	Lazio → Fiorentina	0.06	0.15	+0.09
Edoardo Goldaniga DF	Cagliari → Como	0.06	0.14	+0.09
Guillermo Maripán DF	AS Monaco → TorinoLigue 1→Serie A	0.02	0.09	+0.07
Sebastiano Luperto DF	Empoli → Cagliari	0.06	0.12	+0.07
Emerson Royal MF	Tottenham Hotspur → MilanPL→Serie A	0.02	0.09	+0.07
Leonardo Spinazzola DF	Roma → Napoli	0.16	0.22	+0.06
Nicolás González MF	Fiorentina → Juventus	0.44	0.48	+0.05
Lorenzo Colombo FW	Monza → Empoli	0.29	0.33	+0.05
Raoul Bellanova DF	Torino → Atalanta	0.20	0.23	+0.03
Marcus Pedersen DF	Sassuolo → Torino	0.05	0.08	+0.03
Teun Koopmeiners MF	Atalanta → Juventus	0.34	0.37	+0.03
Sebastian Walukiewicz DF	Empoli → Torino	0.01	0.03	+0.03
Saúl Coco DF	Las Palmas → TorinoLa Liga→Serie A	0.01	0.04	+0.03
Domagoj Bradarić DF	Salernitana → Hellas Verona	0.11	0.14	+0.02
Robin Gosens DF	1. FC Union Berlin → FiorentinaBundesliga→Serie A	0.18	0.20	+0.02
Vitinha FW	Paris Saint-Germain → GenoaLigue 1→Serie A	0.27	0.29	+0.02
Scott McTominay MF	Manchester United → NapoliPL→Serie A	0.38	0.40	+0.02
Pablo Marí DF	Monza → Fiorentina	0.01	0.03	+0.01
Stefan Posch DF	Bologna → Atalanta	0.10	0.11	+0.01
Alessandro Vogliacco MF	Genoa → Parma	0.12	0.12	+0.01
Nadir Zortea DF	Frosinone → Cagliari	0.22	0.22	+0.01
Lassana Coulibaly MF	Salernitana → Lecce	0.05	0.05	+0.00
Alessandro Zanoli DF	Salernitana → Genoa	0.11	0.11	+0.00
Alessandro Buongiorno DF	Torino → Napoli	0.06	0.06	-0.00
Milan Đurić FW	Monza → Parma	0.25	0.23	-0.02
Emanuele Valeri DF	Frosinone → Parma	0.20	0.18	-0.02
Mërgim Vojvoda FW	Torino → Como	0.13	0.11	-0.02
Alberto Dossena DF	Cagliari → Como	0.10	0.08	-0.02
Frédéric Guilbert MF	RC Strasbourg → LecceLigue 1→Serie A	0.08	0.06	-0.02
Alberto Moreno DF	Villarreal → ComoLa Liga→Serie A	0.13	0.10	-0.03
Andrea Colpani MF	Monza → Fiorentina	0.31	0.28	-0.03
Mattia Viti DF	Sassuolo → Empoli	0.08	0.04	-0.04
Warren Bondo MF	Monza → Milan	0.09	0.03	-0.06
Alfred Duncan MF	Fiorentina → Venezia	0.23	0.15	-0.08
Riccardo Sottil FW	Fiorentina → Milan	0.32	0.24	-0.08
Matteo Cancellieri FW	Empoli → Parma	0.30	0.22	-0.09
Youssouf Fofana MF	AS Monaco → MilanLigue 1→Serie A	0.29	0.15	-0.13
Artem Dovbyk FW	Girona FC → RomaLa Liga→Serie A	0.79	0.61	-0.18
Álvaro Morata FW	Atlético Madrid → MilanLa Liga→Serie A	0.73	0.37	-0.36

Attacking output = non-penalty xG + expected assists per 90. Prediction applies our persistence and league-strength factors to the player's prior season. Minimum 900 minutes in both seasons. Goalkeepers and purely defensive value are not covered.

Player

Move

Predicted

Actual

vs model

Mateo Retegui

Genoa → Atalanta

0.25

1.05

+0.81

Boulaye Dia

Salernitana → Lazio

0.30

0.57

+0.27

Christian Kouamé

Fiorentina → Empoli

0.23

0.49

+0.26

Romelu Lukaku

Roma → Napoli

0.38

0.63

+0.25

Matías Soulé

Frosinone → Roma

0.34

0.51

+0.18

Máximo Perrone

Las Palmas → ComoLa Liga→Serie A

0.03

0.19

+0.16

Assane Diao

Real Betis → ComoLa Liga→Serie A

0.29

0.44

+0.16

Lazar Samardžić

Udinese → Atalanta

0.27

0.43

+0.15

Yacine Adli

Milan → Fiorentina

0.13

0.28

+0.15

Alexis Saelemaekers

Bologna → Roma

0.28

0.42

+0.14

Roberto Piccoli

Lecce → Cagliari

0.37

0.50

+0.13

Andrea Pinamonti

Sassuolo → Genoa

0.21

0.33

+0.12

Pontus Almqvist

Lecce → Parma

0.16

0.28

+0.12

Juan Miranda

Real Betis → BolognaLa Liga→Serie A

0.17

0.29

+0.11

Gaetano Oristanio

Cagliari → Venezia

0.23

0.34

+0.10

Gabriel Strefezza

Lecce → Como

0.25

0.35

+0.10

Khéphren Thuram

Nice → JuventusLigue 1→Serie A

0.23

0.33

+0.10

Manu Koné

Borussia M'gladbach → RomaBundesliga→Serie A

0.15

0.24

+0.09

Fabio Miretti

Juventus → Genoa

0.23

0.32

+0.09

Răzvan Marin

Empoli → Cagliari

0.19

0.28

+0.09

Danilo Cataldi

Lazio → Fiorentina

0.06

0.15

+0.09

Edoardo Goldaniga

Cagliari → Como

0.06

0.14

+0.09

Guillermo Maripán

AS Monaco → TorinoLigue 1→Serie A

0.02

0.09

+0.07

Sebastiano Luperto

Empoli → Cagliari

0.06

0.12

+0.07

Emerson Royal

Tottenham Hotspur → MilanPL→Serie A

0.02

0.09

+0.07

Leonardo Spinazzola

Roma → Napoli

0.16

0.22

+0.06

Nicolás González

Fiorentina → Juventus

0.44

0.48

+0.05

Lorenzo Colombo

Monza → Empoli

0.29

0.33

+0.05

Raoul Bellanova

Torino → Atalanta

0.20

0.23

+0.03

Marcus Pedersen

Sassuolo → Torino

0.05

0.08

+0.03

Teun Koopmeiners

Atalanta → Juventus

0.34

0.37

+0.03

Sebastian Walukiewicz

Empoli → Torino

0.01

0.03

+0.03

Saúl Coco

Las Palmas → TorinoLa Liga→Serie A

0.01

0.04

+0.03

Domagoj Bradarić

Salernitana → Hellas Verona

0.11

0.14

+0.02

Robin Gosens

1. FC Union Berlin → FiorentinaBundesliga→Serie A

0.18

0.20

+0.02

Vitinha

Paris Saint-Germain → GenoaLigue 1→Serie A

0.27

0.29

+0.02

Scott McTominay

Manchester United → NapoliPL→Serie A

0.38

0.40

+0.02

Pablo Marí

Monza → Fiorentina

0.01

0.03

+0.01

Stefan Posch

Bologna → Atalanta

0.10

0.11

+0.01

Alessandro Vogliacco

Genoa → Parma

0.12

+0.01

Nadir Zortea

Frosinone → Cagliari

0.22

+0.01

Lassana Coulibaly

Salernitana → Lecce

0.05

+0.00

Alessandro Zanoli

Salernitana → Genoa

0.11

+0.00

Alessandro Buongiorno

Torino → Napoli

0.06

-0.00

Milan Đurić

Monza → Parma

0.25

0.23

-0.02

Emanuele Valeri

Frosinone → Parma

0.20

0.18

-0.02

Mërgim Vojvoda

Torino → Como

0.13

0.11

-0.02

Alberto Dossena

Cagliari → Como

0.10

0.08

-0.02

Frédéric Guilbert

RC Strasbourg → LecceLigue 1→Serie A

0.08

0.06

-0.02

Alberto Moreno

Villarreal → ComoLa Liga→Serie A

0.13

0.10

-0.03

Andrea Colpani

Monza → Fiorentina

0.31

0.28

-0.03

Mattia Viti

Sassuolo → Empoli

0.08

0.04

-0.04

Warren Bondo

Monza → Milan

0.09

0.03

-0.06

Alfred Duncan

Fiorentina → Venezia

0.23

0.15

-0.08

Riccardo Sottil

Fiorentina → Milan

0.32

0.24

-0.08

Matteo Cancellieri

Empoli → Parma

0.30

0.22

-0.09

Youssouf Fofana

AS Monaco → MilanLigue 1→Serie A

0.29

0.15

-0.13

Artem Dovbyk

Girona FC → RomaLa Liga→Serie A

0.79

0.61

-0.18

Álvaro Morata

Atlético Madrid → MilanLa Liga→Serie A

0.73

0.37

-0.36