Transfer report card

Major League Soccer 2026— did the new arrivals deliver? We predict each signing's attacking output from their previous season (adjusted for league strength) and compare it to what they actually produced.

Signings tracked

Model correlation

0.86

predicted vs actual

Avg error

0.07

output per 90

Player	Move	Predicted	Actual	vs model
Robin Lod MF	Minnesota United → Chicago Fire	0.19	0.45	+0.26
Cristian Espinoza FW	San Jose Earthquakes → Nashville SC	0.47	0.60	+0.13
Daniel Edelman MF	New York Red Bulls → St.Louis City	0.04	0.14	+0.10
Griffin Dorsey DF	Houston Dynamo → Orlando City SC	0.20	0.28	+0.08
Rafael Santos DF	Orlando City SC → St.Louis City	0.17	0.23	+0.06
Brandon Bye DF	New England Revolution → Portland Timbers	0.13	0.17	+0.04
Brooklyn Raines MF	Houston Dynamo → New England Revolution	0.04	0.08	+0.04
Cole Bassett MF	Colorado Rapids → Portland Timbers	0.28	0.32	+0.04
Dante Sealy FW	CF Montréal → Colorado Rapids	0.31	0.34	+0.04
Dániel Sallói FW	Sporting Kansas City → Toronto FC	0.35	0.38	+0.03
Joel Waterman DF	CF Montréal → Chicago Fire	0.04	0.06	+0.03
Kyle Duncan DF	New York Red Bulls → Minnesota United	0.17	0.19	+0.02
Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty DF	Charlotte FC → New York Red Bulls	0.07	0.09	+0.02
Justin Haak DF	New York City FC → LA Galaxy	0.07	0.09	+0.02
DeAndre Yedlin DF	FC Cincinnati → Real Salt Lake	0.12	0.12	-0.00
Milan Iloski FW	San Diego FC → Philadelphia Union	0.58	0.57	-0.01
Braian Ojeda MF	Real Salt Lake → Orlando City SC	0.14	0.10	-0.04
Jakob Glesnes DF	Philadelphia Union → LA Galaxy	0.06	0.01	-0.04
Joseph Rosales MF	Minnesota United → Austin FC	0.21	0.15	-0.06
Lukas Engel DF	FC Cincinnati → Real Salt Lake	0.13	0.06	-0.07
Tai Baribo FW	Philadelphia Union → DC United	0.62	0.55	-0.07
Walker Zimmerman DF	Nashville SC → Toronto FC	0.15	0.08	-0.08
Calvin Harris FW	Colorado Rapids → Sporting Kansas City	0.43	0.34	-0.09
Tomás Chancalay FW	New England Revolution → Minnesota United	0.58	0.33	-0.25

Attacking output = non-penalty xG + expected assists per 90. Prediction applies our persistence and league-strength factors to the player's prior season. Minimum 900 minutes in both seasons. Goalkeepers and purely defensive value are not covered.