Transfer report card

Major League Soccer 2026 — did the new arrivals deliver? We predict each signing's attacking output from their previous season (adjusted for league strength) and compare it to what they actually produced.

Signings tracked

Model correlation

0.83

predicted vs actual

Avg error

0.09

output per 90

Player	Move	Predicted	Actual	vs model
Wikelman Carmona MF	New York Red Bulls → CF Montréal	0.10	0.45	+0.35
Robin Lod MF	Minnesota United → Chicago Fire	0.19	0.43	+0.24
Rafael Navarro FW	Colorado Rapids → St.Louis City	0.45	0.66	+0.21
João Klauss FW	St.Louis City → LA Galaxy	0.50	0.71	+0.21
Antoine Griezmann MF	Atlético Madrid → Orlando City SCLa Liga→MLS	0.63	0.84	+0.21
Cheick Tidiane Sabaly FW	Metz → Vancouver WhitecapsLigue 1→MLS	0.23	0.43	+0.20
Oliver Larraz MF	Colorado Rapids → Vancouver Whitecaps	0.13	0.29	+0.15
Daniel Rios FW	Vancouver Whitecaps → CF Montréal	0.34	0.48	+0.14
Cristian Espinoza FW	San Jose Earthquakes → Nashville SC	0.47	0.60	+0.13
Daniel Edelman MF	New York Red Bulls → St.Louis City	0.04	0.17	+0.13
David Schnegg DF	DC United → Charlotte FC	0.14	0.26	+0.12
Brais Méndez FW	Real Sociedad → Columbus CrewLa Liga→MLS	0.36	0.46	+0.10
Santiago Moreno FW	Portland Timbers → FC Dallas	0.43	0.53	+0.10
Griffin Dorsey DF	Houston Dynamo → Orlando City SC	0.20	0.27	+0.08
Milan Iloski FW	San Diego FC → Philadelphia Union	0.58	0.65	+0.07
Cole Bassett MF	Colorado Rapids → Portland Timbers	0.28	0.35	+0.07
Yevhen Cheberko DF	Columbus Crew → Los Angeles FC	0.04	0.11	+0.06
Brandon Bye DF	New England Revolution → Portland Timbers	0.13	0.17	+0.04
Dániel Sallói FW	Sporting Kansas City → Toronto FC	0.35	0.40	+0.04
Rafael Santos DF	Orlando City SC → St.Louis City	0.17	0.21	+0.04
Dejan Joveljić FW	Sporting Kansas City → Seattle Sounders FC	0.37	0.40	+0.04
Brooklyn Raines MF	Houston Dynamo → New England Revolution	0.04	0.07	+0.03
Justin Haak DF	New York City FC → LA Galaxy	0.07	0.11	+0.03
Joel Waterman DF	CF Montréal → Portland Timbers	0.04	0.07	+0.03
Brayan Ceballos DF	New England Revolution → CF Montréal	0.03	0.06	+0.03
James Sands DF	FC St. Pauli → New York City FCBundesliga→MLS	0.06	0.09	+0.03
Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty DF	Charlotte FC → New York Red Bulls	0.07	0.09	+0.02
Kyle Duncan DF	New York Red Bulls → Minnesota United	0.17	0.19	+0.02
Henry Kessler DF	St.Louis City → Charlotte FC	0.05	0.06	+0.01
Erik Thommy MF	Sporting Kansas City → LA Galaxy	0.29	0.28	-0.00
Lukas Engel DF	FC Cincinnati → Real Salt Lake	0.13	0.12	-0.01
Luca De La Torre MF	San Diego FC → Charlotte FC	0.17	0.15	-0.02
Joseph Rosales DF	Minnesota United → Austin FC	0.21	0.18	-0.03
Kyle Smith DF	Orlando City SC → FC Cincinnati	0.15	0.12	-0.03
Jakob Glesnes DF	Philadelphia Union → LA Galaxy	0.06	0.02	-0.03
DeAndre Yedlin DF	FC Cincinnati → Real Salt Lake	0.12	0.09	-0.03
Tai Baribo FW	Philadelphia Union → DC United	0.62	0.59	-0.04
Braian Ojeda MF	Real Salt Lake → Orlando City SC	0.14	0.09	-0.04
Jacob Shaffelburg FW	Nashville SC → Los Angeles FC	0.39	0.33	-0.06
Walker Zimmerman DF	Nashville SC → Toronto FC	0.15	0.09	-0.06
Dagur Dan Þórhallsson DF	Orlando City SC → San Diego FC	0.21	0.13	-0.08
Calvin Harris MF	Colorado Rapids → Sporting Kansas City	0.43	0.34	-0.09
Gabriel Pirani MF	DC United → San Diego FC	0.37	0.27	-0.10
Dániel Gazdag MF	Philadelphia Union → New England Revolution	0.36	0.24	-0.12
Robert Lewandowski FW	Barcelona → Chicago FireLa Liga→MLS	0.71	0.54	-0.18
Tomás Chancalay FW	New England Revolution → Minnesota United	0.58	0.37	-0.21
Casemiro DF	Manchester United → Inter Miami CFPL→MLS	0.33	0.11	-0.22

Attacking output = non-penalty xG + expected assists per 90. Prediction applies our persistence and league-strength factors to the player's prior season. Minimum 900 minutes in both seasons. Goalkeepers and purely defensive value are not covered.

Player

Move

Predicted

Actual

vs model

Wikelman Carmona

New York Red Bulls → CF Montréal

0.10

0.45

+0.35

Robin Lod

Minnesota United → Chicago Fire

0.19

0.43

+0.24

Rafael Navarro

Colorado Rapids → St.Louis City

0.45

0.66

+0.21

João Klauss

St.Louis City → LA Galaxy

0.50

0.71

+0.21

Antoine Griezmann

Atlético Madrid → Orlando City SCLa Liga→MLS

0.63

0.84

+0.21

Cheick Tidiane Sabaly

Metz → Vancouver WhitecapsLigue 1→MLS

0.23

0.43

+0.20

Oliver Larraz

Colorado Rapids → Vancouver Whitecaps

0.13

0.29

+0.15

Daniel Rios

Vancouver Whitecaps → CF Montréal

0.34

0.48

+0.14

Cristian Espinoza

San Jose Earthquakes → Nashville SC

0.47

0.60

+0.13

Daniel Edelman

New York Red Bulls → St.Louis City

0.04

0.17

+0.13

David Schnegg

DC United → Charlotte FC

0.14

0.26

+0.12

Brais Méndez

Real Sociedad → Columbus CrewLa Liga→MLS

0.36

0.46

+0.10

Santiago Moreno

Portland Timbers → FC Dallas

0.43

0.53

+0.10

Griffin Dorsey

Houston Dynamo → Orlando City SC

0.20

0.27

+0.08

Milan Iloski

San Diego FC → Philadelphia Union

0.58

0.65

+0.07

Cole Bassett

Colorado Rapids → Portland Timbers

0.28

0.35

+0.07

Yevhen Cheberko

Columbus Crew → Los Angeles FC

0.04

0.11

+0.06

Brandon Bye

New England Revolution → Portland Timbers

0.13

0.17

+0.04

Dániel Sallói

Sporting Kansas City → Toronto FC

0.35

0.40

+0.04

Rafael Santos

Orlando City SC → St.Louis City

0.17

0.21

+0.04

Dejan Joveljić

Sporting Kansas City → Seattle Sounders FC

0.37

0.40

+0.04

Brooklyn Raines

Houston Dynamo → New England Revolution

0.04

0.07

+0.03

Justin Haak

New York City FC → LA Galaxy

0.07

0.11

+0.03

Joel Waterman

CF Montréal → Portland Timbers

0.04

0.07

+0.03

Brayan Ceballos

New England Revolution → CF Montréal

0.03

0.06

+0.03

James Sands

FC St. Pauli → New York City FCBundesliga→MLS

0.06

0.09

+0.03

Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty

Charlotte FC → New York Red Bulls

0.07

0.09

+0.02

Kyle Duncan

New York Red Bulls → Minnesota United

0.17

0.19

+0.02

Henry Kessler

St.Louis City → Charlotte FC

0.05

0.06

+0.01

Erik Thommy

Sporting Kansas City → LA Galaxy

0.29

0.28

-0.00

Lukas Engel

FC Cincinnati → Real Salt Lake

0.13

0.12

-0.01

Luca De La Torre

San Diego FC → Charlotte FC

0.17

0.15

-0.02

Joseph Rosales

Minnesota United → Austin FC

0.21

0.18

-0.03

Kyle Smith

Orlando City SC → FC Cincinnati

0.15

0.12

-0.03

Jakob Glesnes

Philadelphia Union → LA Galaxy

0.06

0.02

-0.03

DeAndre Yedlin

FC Cincinnati → Real Salt Lake

0.12

0.09

-0.03

Tai Baribo

Philadelphia Union → DC United

0.62

0.59

-0.04

Braian Ojeda

Real Salt Lake → Orlando City SC

0.14

0.09

-0.04

Jacob Shaffelburg

Nashville SC → Los Angeles FC

0.39

0.33

-0.06

Walker Zimmerman

Nashville SC → Toronto FC

0.15

0.09

-0.06

Dagur Dan Þórhallsson

Orlando City SC → San Diego FC

0.21

0.13

-0.08

Calvin Harris

Colorado Rapids → Sporting Kansas City

0.43

0.34

-0.09

Gabriel Pirani

DC United → San Diego FC

0.37

0.27

-0.10

Dániel Gazdag

Philadelphia Union → New England Revolution

0.36

0.24

-0.12

Robert Lewandowski

Barcelona → Chicago FireLa Liga→MLS

0.71

0.54

-0.18

Tomás Chancalay

New England Revolution → Minnesota United

0.58

0.37

-0.21

Casemiro

Manchester United → Inter Miami CFPL→MLS

0.33

0.11

-0.22