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Major League Soccer 2025 — did the new arrivals deliver? We predict each signing's attacking output from their previous season (adjusted for league strength) and compare it to what they actually produced.
| Player | Move | Predicted | Actual | vs model |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Spicer MF | Toronto FC → Orlando City SC | 0.06 | 0.33 | +0.27 |
| Son Heung-min FW | Tottenham Hotspur → Los Angeles FCPL→MLS | 0.63 | 0.88 | +0.26 |
| Amahl Pellegrino MF | San Jose Earthquakes → San Diego FC | 0.46 | 0.72 | +0.26 |
| Anthony Markanich DF | St.Louis City → Minnesota United | 0.08 | 0.32 | +0.24 |
| Prince Owusu FW | Toronto FC → CF Montréal | 0.39 | 0.60 | +0.21 |
| DeJuan Jones DF | New England Revolution → San Jose Earthquakes | 0.11 | 0.29 | +0.18 |
| Jack McGlynn FW | Philadelphia Union → Houston Dynamo | 0.27 | 0.45 | +0.17 |
| Josef Martínez FW | CF Montréal → San Jose Earthquakes | 0.62 | 0.74 | +0.13 |
| Kevin Kelsy FW | FC Cincinnati → Portland Timbers | 0.23 | 0.36 | +0.13 |
| Mark-Anthony Kaye MF | New England Revolution → San Jose Earthquakes | 0.09 | 0.20 | +0.12 |
| Sam Junqua DF | FC Dallas → Real Salt Lake | 0.08 | 0.16 | +0.08 |
| Tah Anunga MF | Nashville SC → FC Cincinnati | 0.02 | 0.08 | +0.06 |
| Gastón Brugman MF | LA Galaxy → Nashville SC | 0.17 | 0.24 | +0.06 |
| Eduard Atuesta MF | Los Angeles FC → Orlando City SC | 0.25 | 0.31 | +0.06 |
| Júnior Urso MF | Charlotte FC → | 0.14 | 0.19 | +0.06 |
| Jalen Neal DF | LA Galaxy → CF Montréal | 0.01 | 0.05 | +0.05 |
| Ian Harkes MF | New England Revolution → San Jose Earthquakes | 0.13 | 0.16 | +0.04 |
| Ilie Sánchez MF | Los Angeles FC → Austin FC | 0.04 | 0.08 | +0.03 |
| DeAndre Yedlin DF | Inter Miami CF → FC Cincinnati | 0.10 | 0.14 | +0.03 |
| Dave Romney DF | New England Revolution → San Jose Earthquakes | 0.02 | 0.04 | +0.02 |
| Jack Elliott DF | Philadelphia Union → Chicago Fire | 0.09 | 0.11 | +0.02 |
| Christopher McVey DF | DC United → San Diego FC | 0.05 | 0.07 | +0.02 |
| Jeong Sang-bin FW | Minnesota United → St.Louis City | 0.27 | 0.28 | +0.01 |
| Mark Delgado MF | LA Galaxy → Los Angeles FC | 0.19 | 0.19 | -0.00 |
| Bode Hidalgo DF | Real Salt Lake → CF Montréal | 0.08 | 0.08 | -0.00 |
| Tanner Beason DF | San Jose Earthquakes → New England Revolution | 0.04 | 0.03 | -0.01 |
| Shaq Moore DF | Nashville SC → FC Dallas | 0.16 | 0.14 | -0.01 |
| Lalas Abubakar DF | Colorado Rapids → FC Dallas | 0.06 | 0.04 | -0.01 |
| Ian Murphy DF | FC Cincinnati → Colorado Rapids | 0.02 | 0.01 | -0.01 |
| Brayan Vera DF | Real Salt Lake → CF Montréal | 0.10 | 0.08 | -0.01 |
| Rodrigo De Paul MF | Atlético Madrid → Inter Miami CFLa Liga→MLS | 0.22 | 0.20 | -0.02 |
| Aníbal Godoy MF | Nashville SC → San Diego FC | 0.15 | 0.13 | -0.02 |
| Leonardo Campana FW | Inter Miami CF → New England Revolution | 0.51 | 0.49 | -0.02 |
| Derrick Etienne FW | Atlanta United → Toronto FC | 0.23 | 0.20 | -0.03 |
| Jesús Ferreira FW | FC Dallas → Seattle Sounders FC | 0.43 | 0.40 | -0.03 |
| Theodore Ku-DiPietro MF | DC United → Colorado Rapids | 0.39 | 0.36 | -0.03 |
| Nkosi Tafari DF | FC Dallas → Los Angeles FC | 0.07 | 0.04 | -0.03 |
| Sebastian Kowalczyk MF | Houston Dynamo → | 0.24 | 0.19 | -0.05 |
| Matthew Longstaff MF | Toronto FC → CF Montréal | 0.20 | 0.15 | -0.05 |
| Caden Clark MF | Minnesota United → CF Montréal | 0.27 | 0.21 | -0.06 |
| Raheem Edwards DF | CF Montréal → New York Red Bulls | 0.20 | 0.13 | -0.07 |
| Evander MF | Portland Timbers → FC Cincinnati | 0.61 | 0.53 | -0.07 |
| Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty DF | CF Montréal → Charlotte FC | 0.16 | 0.08 | -0.08 |
| Đorđe Mihailović MF | Colorado Rapids → Toronto FC | 0.54 | 0.45 | -0.08 |
| Daniel Rios FW | Atlanta United → Vancouver Whitecaps | 0.48 | 0.38 | -0.10 |
| Julian Gressel MF | Inter Miami CF → Minnesota United | 0.28 | 0.18 | -0.10 |
| Indiana Vassilev MF | St.Louis City → Philadelphia Union | 0.34 | 0.24 | -0.10 |
| Josh Atencio MF | Seattle Sounders FC → Colorado Rapids | 0.19 | 0.08 | -0.11 |
| Cristian Arango FW | Real Salt Lake → San Jose Earthquakes | 0.69 | 0.58 | -0.11 |
| Corey Baird FW | FC Cincinnati → San Diego FC | 0.39 | 0.27 | -0.11 |
| Luciano Acosta MF | FC Cincinnati → FC Dallas | 0.57 | 0.40 | -0.17 |
| Anderson Julio FW | Real Salt Lake → FC Dallas | 0.58 | 0.37 | -0.21 |
| Dejan Joveljić FW | LA Galaxy → Sporting Kansas City | 0.71 | 0.41 | -0.30 |
| William Agada FW | Sporting Kansas City → Real Salt Lake | 0.78 | 0.40 | -0.38 |
Attacking output = non-penalty xG + expected assists per 90. Prediction applies our persistence and league-strength factors to the player's prior season. Minimum 900 minutes in both seasons. Goalkeepers and purely defensive value are not covered.