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Major League Soccer 2025— did the new arrivals deliver? We predict each signing's attacking output from their previous season (adjusted for league strength) and compare it to what they actually produced.
| Player | Move | Predicted | Actual | vs model |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Spicer MF | Toronto FC → Orlando City SC | 0.06 | 0.33 | +0.27 |
| Son Heung-min FW | Tottenham Hotspur → Los Angeles FCPL→MLS | 0.63 | 0.88 | +0.26 |
| Amahl Pellegrino MF | San Jose Earthquakes → San Diego FC | 0.46 | 0.72 | +0.26 |
| Anthony Markanich DF | St.Louis City → Minnesota United | 0.08 | 0.32 | +0.24 |
| Prince Owusu FW | Toronto FC → CF Montréal | 0.39 | 0.60 | +0.21 |
| DeJuan Jones DF | New England Revolution → San Jose Earthquakes | 0.11 | 0.29 | +0.18 |
| Jack McGlynn FW | Philadelphia Union → Houston Dynamo | 0.27 | 0.45 | +0.17 |
| Josef Martínez FW | CF Montréal → San Jose Earthquakes | 0.62 | 0.74 | +0.13 |
| Kevin Kelsy FW | FC Cincinnati → Portland Timbers | 0.23 | 0.36 | +0.13 |
| Mark-Anthony Kaye MF | New England Revolution → San Jose Earthquakes | 0.09 | 0.20 | +0.12 |
| Sam Junqua DF | FC Dallas → Real Salt Lake | 0.08 | 0.16 | +0.08 |
| Tah Anunga MF | Nashville SC → FC Cincinnati | 0.02 | 0.08 | +0.06 |
| Gastón Brugman MF | LA Galaxy → Nashville SC | 0.17 | 0.24 | +0.06 |
| Eduard Atuesta MF | Los Angeles FC → Orlando City SC | 0.25 | 0.31 | +0.06 |
| Júnior Urso MF | Charlotte FC → | 0.14 | 0.19 | +0.06 |
| Jalen Neal DF | LA Galaxy → CF Montréal | 0.01 | 0.05 | +0.05 |
| Ian Harkes MF | New England Revolution → San Jose Earthquakes | 0.13 | 0.16 | +0.04 |
| Ilie Sánchez MF | Los Angeles FC → Austin FC | 0.04 | 0.08 | +0.03 |
| DeAndre Yedlin DF | Inter Miami CF → FC Cincinnati | 0.10 | 0.14 | +0.03 |
| Dave Romney DF | New England Revolution → San Jose Earthquakes | 0.02 | 0.04 | +0.02 |
| Jack Elliott DF | Philadelphia Union → Chicago Fire | 0.09 | 0.11 | +0.02 |
| Christopher McVey DF | DC United → San Diego FC | 0.05 | 0.07 | +0.02 |
| Jeong Sang-bin FW | Minnesota United → St.Louis City | 0.27 | 0.28 | +0.01 |
| Mark Delgado MF | LA Galaxy → Los Angeles FC | 0.19 | 0.19 | -0.00 |
| Bode Hidalgo DF | Real Salt Lake → CF Montréal | 0.08 | 0.08 | -0.00 |
| Tanner Beason DF | San Jose Earthquakes → New England Revolution | 0.04 | 0.03 | -0.01 |
| Shaq Moore DF | Nashville SC → FC Dallas | 0.16 | 0.14 | -0.01 |
| Lalas Abubakar DF | Colorado Rapids → FC Dallas | 0.06 | 0.04 | -0.01 |
| Ian Murphy DF | FC Cincinnati → Colorado Rapids | 0.02 | 0.01 | -0.01 |
| Brayan Vera DF | Real Salt Lake → CF Montréal | 0.10 | 0.08 | -0.01 |
| Rodrigo De Paul MF | Atlético Madrid → Inter Miami CFLa Liga→MLS | 0.22 | 0.20 | -0.02 |
| Aníbal Godoy MF | Nashville SC → San Diego FC | 0.15 | 0.13 | -0.02 |
| Leonardo Campana FW | Inter Miami CF → New England Revolution | 0.51 | 0.49 | -0.02 |
| Derrick Etienne FW | Atlanta United → Toronto FC | 0.23 | 0.20 | -0.03 |
| Jesús Ferreira FW | FC Dallas → Seattle Sounders FC | 0.43 | 0.40 | -0.03 |
| Theodore Ku-DiPietro MF | DC United → Colorado Rapids | 0.39 | 0.36 | -0.03 |
| Nkosi Tafari DF | FC Dallas → Los Angeles FC | 0.07 | 0.04 | -0.03 |
| Sebastian Kowalczyk MF | Houston Dynamo → | 0.24 | 0.19 | -0.05 |
| Matthew Longstaff MF | Toronto FC → CF Montréal | 0.20 | 0.15 | -0.05 |
| Caden Clark MF | Minnesota United → CF Montréal | 0.27 | 0.21 | -0.06 |
| Raheem Edwards DF | CF Montréal → New York Red Bulls | 0.20 | 0.13 | -0.07 |
| Evander MF | Portland Timbers → FC Cincinnati | 0.61 | 0.53 | -0.07 |
| Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty DF | CF Montréal → Charlotte FC | 0.16 | 0.08 | -0.08 |
| Đorđe Mihailović MF | Colorado Rapids → Toronto FC | 0.54 | 0.45 | -0.08 |
| Daniel Rios FW | Atlanta United → Vancouver Whitecaps | 0.48 | 0.38 | -0.10 |
| Julian Gressel MF | Inter Miami CF → Minnesota United | 0.28 | 0.18 | -0.10 |
| Indiana Vassilev MF | St.Louis City → Philadelphia Union | 0.34 | 0.24 | -0.10 |
| Josh Atencio MF | Seattle Sounders FC → Colorado Rapids | 0.19 | 0.08 | -0.11 |
| Cristian Arango FW | Real Salt Lake → San Jose Earthquakes | 0.69 | 0.58 | -0.11 |
| Corey Baird FW | FC Cincinnati → San Diego FC | 0.39 | 0.27 | -0.11 |
| Luciano Acosta MF | FC Cincinnati → FC Dallas | 0.57 | 0.40 | -0.17 |
| Anderson Julio FW | Real Salt Lake → FC Dallas | 0.58 | 0.37 | -0.21 |
| Dejan Joveljić FW | LA Galaxy → Sporting Kansas City | 0.71 | 0.41 | -0.30 |
| William Agada FW | Sporting Kansas City → Real Salt Lake | 0.78 | 0.40 | -0.38 |
Attacking output = non-penalty xG + expected assists per 90. Prediction applies our persistence and league-strength factors to the player's prior season. Minimum 900 minutes in both seasons. Goalkeepers and purely defensive value are not covered.