Transfer report card

Major League Soccer 2024 — did the new arrivals deliver? We predict each signing's attacking output from their previous season (adjusted for league strength) and compare it to what they actually produced.

Signings tracked

Model correlation

0.58

predicted vs actual

Avg error

0.09

output per 90

Player	Move	Predicted	Actual	vs model
Latif Blessing MF	Toronto FC → Houston Dynamo	0.11	0.66	+0.54
Josef Martínez FW	Inter Miami CF → CF Montréal	0.28	0.68	+0.41
Fafà Picault FW	Nashville SC → Vancouver Whitecaps	0.26	0.58	+0.32
Kei Kamara FW	Chicago Fire → Los Angeles FC	0.31	0.53	+0.23
Ruan DF	Sassuolo → CF MontréalSerie A→MLS	0.03	0.21	+0.18
Jared Stroud FW	St.Louis City → DC United	0.28	0.41	+0.12
Diego Fagúndez MF	Austin FC → LA Galaxy	0.26	0.38	+0.12
Corey Baird FW	Houston Dynamo → FC Cincinnati	0.33	0.43	+0.10
Bryce Duke FW	Inter Miami CF → CF Montréal	0.21	0.30	+0.09
Raheem Edwards DF	LA Galaxy → CF Montréal	0.15	0.23	+0.08
Nicolás Lodeiro MF	Seattle Sounders FC → Orlando City SC	0.33	0.40	+0.07
Richie Laryea DF	Vancouver Whitecaps → Toronto FC	0.14	0.20	+0.05
Kellyn Acosta MF	Los Angeles FC → Chicago Fire	0.10	0.14	+0.05
Ariel Lassiter DF	Inter Miami CF → CF Montréal	0.23	0.27	+0.04
Aaron Herrera DF	CF Montréal → DC United	0.14	0.19	+0.04
Memo Rodríguez MF	Austin FC → Sporting Kansas City	0.26	0.28	+0.03
Lucas Bartlett DF	St.Louis City → DC United	0.10	0.13	+0.03
Maxime Chanot DF	New York City FC → Los Angeles FC	0.10	0.12	+0.02
Lewis O'Brien MF	DC United → Los Angeles FC	0.16	0.18	+0.02
Kamal Miller DF	Inter Miami CF → Portland Timbers	0.03	0.04	+0.01
Rudy Camacho DF	CF Montréal → Columbus Crew	0.02	0.03	+0.01
Christopher McVey DF	Inter Miami CF → DC United	0.05	0.06	+0.01
Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty DF	Toronto FC → CF Montréal	0.17	0.18	+0.01
Derrick Williams DF	DC United → Atlanta United	0.08	0.08	+0.01
Brendan Hines-Ike DF	DC United → Austin FC	0.04	0.05	+0.01
Mark-Anthony Kaye MF	Toronto FC → New England Revolution	0.09	0.10	+0.00
Philip Quinton DF	Columbus Crew → Real Salt Lake	0.04	0.04	+0.00
Diego Rubio FW	Colorado Rapids → Austin FC	0.27	0.26	-0.00
Cristián Dájome FW	Vancouver Whitecaps → DC United	0.25	0.25	-0.00
Tim Ream DF	Fulham → Charlotte FCPL→MLS	0.06	0.05	-0.01
Dax McCarty MF	Nashville SC → Atlanta United	0.10	0.09	-0.01
Miles Robinson DF	Atlanta United → FC Cincinnati	0.06	0.05	-0.01
Christopher Durkin MF	DC United → St.Louis City	0.16	0.13	-0.03
John Nelson DF	St.Louis City → LA Galaxy	0.08	0.05	-0.03
Omir Fernandez MF	New York Red Bulls → Colorado Rapids	0.33	0.29	-0.04
Tyler Boyd FW	LA Galaxy → Nashville SC	0.33	0.27	-0.06
Julian Gressel MF	Vancouver Whitecaps → Inter Miami CF	0.37	0.32	-0.06
Nick Lima DF	Austin FC → New England Revolution	0.16	0.07	-0.09
Jader Obrian FW	FC Dallas → Austin FC	0.38	0.25	-0.13
Aleksey Miranchuk MF	Atalanta → Atlanta UnitedSerie A→MLS	0.68	0.31	-0.36

Attacking output = non-penalty xG + expected assists per 90. Prediction applies our persistence and league-strength factors to the player's prior season. Minimum 900 minutes in both seasons. Goalkeepers and purely defensive value are not covered.