Toulouse vs Paris Saint-Germainprediction

Ligue 1 2025/26 · Matchday 13 · Sat, 5 Dec 2026

Model forecast

win / draw / loss probabilities from the rolling-strength model

ToulouseParis Saint-Germain

Toulouse 19%Draw 24%Paris Saint-Germain 57%

Expected score

1–2

Over 2.5 goals

46%

Both teams score

49%

The rolling-strength model makes Paris Saint-Germain the favourites at 57% — Toulouse 19%, the draw 24% and Paris Saint-Germain 57%. The most likely scoreline is 1–2, with a 46% chance of more than 2.5 goals. These are the model's own probabilities — analysis only, not advice of any kind.