Olympique de Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germainprediction

Ligue 1 2025/26 · Matchday 5 · Sun, 20 Sept 2026

Model forecast

win / draw / loss probabilities from the rolling-strength model

Olympique de MarseilleParis Saint-Germain

Olympique de Marseille 27%Draw 24%Paris Saint-Germain 48%

Expected score

2–2

Over 2.5 goals

66%

Both teams score

66%

The rolling-strength model makes Paris Saint-Germain the favourites at 48% — Olympique de Marseille 27%, the draw 24% and Paris Saint-Germain 48%. The most likely scoreline is 2–2, with a 66% chance of more than 2.5 goals. These are the model's own probabilities — analysis only, not advice of any kind.