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Ligue 1 2025/26— did the new arrivals deliver? We predict each signing's attacking output from their previous season (adjusted for league strength) and compare it to what they actually produced.
| Player | Move | Predicted | Actual | vs model |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia FW | Napoli → Paris Saint-GermainSerie A→Ligue 1 | 0.46 | 0.66 | +0.20 |
| Florian Thauvin FW | Udinese → RC LensSerie A→Ligue 1 | 0.44 | 0.63 | +0.19 |
| Romain Perraud DF | Real Betis → LilleLa Liga→Ligue 1 | 0.07 | 0.25 | +0.19 |
| Marshall Munetsi MF | Stade de Reims → Paris FC | 0.30 | 0.45 | +0.15 |
| Przemysław Frankowski DF | RC Lens → Stade Rennais | 0.16 | 0.26 | +0.10 |
| Anthony Rouault DF | VfB Stuttgart → Stade RennaisBundesliga→Ligue 1 | 0.05 | 0.11 | +0.06 |
| Diego Coppola DF | Hellas Verona → Paris FCSerie A→Ligue 1 | 0.03 | 0.09 | +0.06 |
| Nhoa Sangui DF | Stade de Reims → | 0.05 | 0.09 | +0.04 |
| Louis Mouton MF | Saint-Étienne → Angers | 0.22 | 0.24 | +0.03 |
| Emerson Palmieri DF | West Ham United → Olympique de MarseillePL→Ligue 1 | 0.19 | 0.21 | +0.02 |
| Benjamin Pavard DF | Inter → Olympique de MarseilleSerie A→Ligue 1 | 0.08 | 0.10 | +0.02 |
| Valentin Rongier MF | Olympique de Marseille → Stade Rennais | 0.17 | 0.17 | +0.01 |
| Joris Chotard MF | Montpellier → Stade Brestois | 0.09 | 0.08 | -0.02 |
| Wout Faes DF | Leicester City → AS MonacoPL→Ligue 1 | 0.08 | 0.03 | -0.04 |
| Ilya Zabarnyi DF | Bournemouth → Paris Saint-GermainPL→Ligue 1 | 0.08 | 0.03 | -0.05 |
| Quentin Merlin DF | Olympique de Marseille → Stade Rennais | 0.31 | 0.24 | -0.07 |
| Facundo Medina DF | RC Lens → Olympique de Marseille | 0.15 | 0.07 | -0.08 |
| Nayef Aguerd DF | Real Sociedad → Olympique de MarseilleLa Liga→Ligue 1 | 0.15 | 0.06 | -0.08 |
| Mahdi Camara MF | Stade Brestois → Stade Rennais | 0.28 | 0.17 | -0.10 |
| Moses Simon FW | Nantes → Paris FC | 0.38 | 0.28 | -0.11 |
| Timothy Weah DF | Juventus → Olympique de MarseilleSerie A→Ligue 1 | 0.32 | 0.20 | -0.12 |
| Josué Casimir FW | Le Havre → Auxerre | 0.30 | 0.16 | -0.14 |
| Breel Embolo FW | AS Monaco → Stade Rennais | 0.90 | 0.52 | -0.38 |
Attacking output = non-penalty xG + expected assists per 90. Prediction applies our persistence and league-strength factors to the player's prior season. Minimum 900 minutes in both seasons. Goalkeepers and purely defensive value are not covered.