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Ligue 1 2024/25 · Pro
We estimate each team's home/away attacking and defensive strength from this season's expected goals, exactly as our season projections do. A signing changes your team's expected goals per match by a damped share of the difference between the incoming and outgoing player's attacking output (non-penalty xG plus expected assists per 90). That change flows through every remaining fixture to give expected goals, expected points and Monte-Carlo finishing odds.
Honest limits: individual output carries across clubs strongly in our back-test, but a single signing's effect on whole-team output is noisy — treat the team-level deltas as directional, not precise. Cross-league moves are adjusted by a league-strength factor estimated from Champions League matches. Defensive and tactical value are not modelled.