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Model favoured Getafe · expected score 1–1 · actual 1–0.
The model rates Getafe higher than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| 4.5 | 8% | 92% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Elche secured a 1-0 victory over Getafe in what proved a tightly contested affair on matchday 37. Víctor Chust broke the deadlock in the nineteenth minute, providing the match's decisive moment. The goal represented a significant swing in the match dynamics, with the home side's win probability surging by 0.342 at that point. Elche dominated possession in terms of attempts, registering ten shots compared to Getafe's four throughout the ninety minutes.
The underlying statistics suggest Elche deserved their victory, despite the narrow margin. The hosts accumulated 0.46 xG whilst restricting their visitors to just 0.09, a considerable disparity that reflected their control of the contest. Chust's goal came from a low-quality chance valued at 0.07 xG, yet it proved sufficient to secure three points. Neither side created any clear-cut opportunities, though Elche's greater shot volume and territorial dominance ultimately justified their success.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).