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Model favoured Osasuna · expected score 1–2 · actual 0–0.
The model rates Osasuna higher than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 96% | 4% |
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 4.5 | 21% | 79% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Elche and Osasuna played out a goalless draw on Matchday 24, in a contest that saw the home side create considerably more opportunities without finding the back of the net. Álvaro Rodríguez twice went close for Elche in the opening half-hour, whilst Raúl García de Haro's effort was denied by the Osasuna goalkeeper in the 75th minute. The biggest swing in winning probability came in the final moments, moving marginally in Osasuna's favour.
The underlying statistics tell a story of Elche dominance that went unrewarded. The hosts generated an xG of 1.95 compared to Osasuna's 0.76, and registered 17 shots to their visitors' six. Despite this territorial and creative superiority, Elche could not convert their pressure into goals, resulting in a draw that appeared to favour the away side given the pre-match expectations, where Osasuna had entered as favourites with a 53 per cent win probability.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).