Transfer report card

La Liga 2025/26— did the new arrivals deliver? We predict each signing's attacking output from their previous season (adjusted for league strength) and compare it to what they actually produced.

Signings tracked

Model correlation

0.88

predicted vs actual

Avg error

0.07

output per 90

Player	Move	Predicted	Actual	vs model
Robert Navarro MF	Mallorca → Athletic Club	0.19	0.40	+0.21
Marcus Rashford FW	Aston Villa → BarcelonaPL→La Liga	0.54	0.69	+0.16
Adrià Pedrosa DF	Sevilla → Elche	0.10	0.23	+0.13
Kike García FW	Deportivo Alavés → Espanyol	0.37	0.47	+0.10
Javi López DF	Real Sociedad → Real Oviedo	0.02	0.12	+0.10
Lucas Beltrán MF	Fiorentina → ValenciaSerie A→La Liga	0.29	0.39	+0.10
Guido Rodríguez MF	West Ham United → ValenciaPL→La Liga	0.03	0.11	+0.08
Eray Cömert DF	Real Valladolid → Valencia	0.06	0.13	+0.07
José Copete DF	Mallorca → Valencia	0.04	0.11	+0.07
Matteo Ruggeri DF	Atalanta → Atlético MadridSerie A→La Liga	0.09	0.15	+0.06
Jesús Areso DF	Osasuna → Athletic Club	0.09	0.13	+0.04
Alberto Moleiro MF	Las Palmas → Villarreal	0.35	0.39	+0.04
Kiko Femenía DF	Villarreal → Getafe	0.08	0.10	+0.03
Abdelkabir Abqar DF	Deportivo Alavés → Getafe	0.06	0.07	+0.01
Fran Beltrán MF	Celta Vigo → Girona FC	0.08	0.09	+0.01
Akor Adams FW	Montpellier → SevillaLigue 1→La Liga	0.40	0.41	+0.01
Dean Huijsen DF	Bournemouth → Real MadridPL→La Liga	0.16	0.16	+0.01
Carlos Soler MF	West Ham United → Real SociedadPL→La Liga	0.26	0.26	-0.00
Valentin Rosier DF	Leganés → Osasuna	0.08	0.08	-0.00
Léo Pétrot DF	Saint-Étienne → ElcheLigue 1→La Liga	0.05	0.04	-0.01
Manuel Sánchez DF	Deportivo Alavés → Levante UD	0.11	0.08	-0.03
Gabriel Suazo DF	Toulouse → SevillaLigue 1→La Liga	0.20	0.17	-0.03
Santiago Mouriño DF	Deportivo Alavés → Villarreal	0.12	0.09	-0.03
Nicolás González MF	Juventus → Atlético MadridSerie A→La Liga	0.40	0.37	-0.04
Mario Martín MF	Real Valladolid → Getafe	0.16	0.12	-0.04
Trent Alexander-Arnold DF	Liverpool → Real MadridPL→La Liga	0.33	0.28	-0.04
Tete Morente DF	Lecce → ElcheSerie A→La Liga	0.21	0.16	-0.05
Thomas Partey MF	Arsenal → VillarrealPL→La Liga	0.17	0.12	-0.05
Thiago Almada MF	Atlanta United → Atlético MadridMLS→La Liga	0.47	0.42	-0.05
Georges Mikautadze FW	Olympique Lyonnais → VillarrealLigue 1→La Liga	0.72	0.67	-0.06
Arnaut Danjuma FW	Girona FC → Valencia	0.39	0.32	-0.07
Duje Ćaleta-Car DF	Olympique Lyonnais → Real SociedadLigue 1→La Liga	0.13	0.07	-0.07
Bryan Zaragoza FW	Osasuna → Celta Vigo	0.36	0.23	-0.13
Cucho Hernández FW	Columbus Crew → Real BetisMLS→La Liga	0.68	0.50	-0.17
Alex Baena MF	Villarreal → Atlético Madrid	0.58	0.37	-0.21
Tani Oluwaseyi FW	Minnesota United → VillarrealMLS→La Liga	0.75	0.45	-0.30

Attacking output = non-penalty xG + expected assists per 90. Prediction applies our persistence and league-strength factors to the player's prior season. Minimum 900 minutes in both seasons. Goalkeepers and purely defensive value are not covered.