Transfer report card

La Liga 2024/25— did the new arrivals deliver? We predict each signing's attacking output from their previous season (adjusted for league strength) and compare it to what they actually produced.

Signings tracked

Model correlation

0.81

predicted vs actual

Avg error

0.12

output per 90

Player	Move	Predicted	Actual	vs model
Alexander Sørloth FW	Villarreal → Atlético Madrid	0.56	1.60	+1.04
Ayoze Pérez FW	Real Betis → Villarreal	0.36	1.10	+0.74
Saúl Ñíguez MF	Atlético Madrid → Sevilla	0.22	0.46	+0.24
Juan Cruz MF	Osasuna → Leganés	0.02	0.25	+0.23
Kylian Mbappé FW	Paris Saint-Germain → Real MadridLigue 1→La Liga	0.75	0.97	+0.22
Bryan Zaragoza FW	Granada → Osasuna	0.27	0.40	+0.13
Oliver McBurnie MF	Sheffield United → Las PalmasPL→La Liga	0.50	0.63	+0.12
Sergi Cardona DF	Las Palmas → Villarreal	0.18	0.28	+0.10
Clément Lenglet DF	Aston Villa → Atlético MadridPL→La Liga	0.10	0.20	+0.10
Andoni Gorosabel DF	Deportivo Alavés → Athletic Club	0.05	0.15	+0.10
Enzo Barrenechea MF	Frosinone → ValenciaSerie A→La Liga	0.06	0.15	+0.09
Carles Aleñá MF	Getafe → Deportivo Alavés	0.23	0.31	+0.08
Robin Le Normand DF	Real Sociedad → Atlético Madrid	0.04	0.12	+0.08
Nayef Aguerd MF	West Ham United → Real SociedadPL→La Liga	0.09	0.15	+0.06
Diego Llorente DF	Roma → Real BetisSerie A→La Liga	0.02	0.08	+0.06
Óscar Rodríguez MF	Getafe → Leganés	0.29	0.34	+0.05
Albert Sambi Lokonga MF	Luton Town → SevillaPL→La Liga	0.13	0.17	+0.04
Eray Cömert DF	Nantes → Real ValladolidLigue 1→La Liga	0.03	0.06	+0.04
Javi Galán DF	Real Sociedad → Atlético Madrid	0.07	0.11	+0.03
Conor Gallagher MF	Chelsea → Atlético MadridPL→La Liga	0.30	0.33	+0.03
Johan Mojica DF	Osasuna → Mallorca	0.15	0.17	+0.02
Natan DF	Napoli → Real BetisSerie A→La Liga	0.05	0.06	+0.01
Logan Costa DF	Toulouse → VillarrealLigue 1→La Liga	0.05	0.05	-0.00
Adrián Embarba MF	Almería → Rayo Vallecano	0.27	0.26	-0.01
Manuel Sánchez DF	Celta Vigo → Deportivo Alavés	0.13	0.12	-0.01
Alex Král MF	1. FC Union Berlin → EspanyolBundesliga→La Liga	0.10	0.09	-0.01
Robert Navarro MF	Cádiz → Mallorca	0.23	0.22	-0.02
Julián Alvarez FW	Manchester City → Atlético MadridPL→La Liga	0.72	0.70	-0.02
Javier Hernández MF	Cádiz → Leganés	0.14	0.10	-0.03
Matija Nastasić MF	Mallorca → Leganés	0.04	0.00	-0.04
Renato Tapia MF	Celta Vigo → Leganés	0.09	0.05	-0.04
José Ángel Carmona DF	Getafe → Sevilla	0.12	0.06	-0.06
Luis Rioja MF	Deportivo Alavés → Valencia	0.23	0.16	-0.06
Javi López DF	Deportivo Alavés → Real Sociedad	0.09	0.02	-0.07
Moussa Diarra DF	Toulouse → Deportivo AlavésLigue 1→La Liga	0.09	0.01	-0.08
Oriol Romeu MF	Barcelona → Girona FC	0.12	0.03	-0.09
Álex Sola MF	Deportivo Alavés → Getafe	0.27	0.16	-0.11

Attacking output = non-penalty xG + expected assists per 90. Prediction applies our persistence and league-strength factors to the player's prior season. Minimum 900 minutes in both seasons. Goalkeepers and purely defensive value are not covered.