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Model favoured Crystal Palace · expected score 2–2 · actual 0–0.
The model rates Crystal Palace higher than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 97% | 3% |
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 4.5 | 26% | 74% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Crystal Palace and Aston Villa played out a goalless draw at Selhurst Park in a match that remained competitive throughout. Despite Palace registering 11 shots to Villa's 15, neither side could find the back of the net. The most notable moment came when Ollie Watkins squandered two big chances for the visitors, with a shot saved in the 25th minute and another going wide four minutes before half-time. Yéremy Pino created Palace's best opportunity in the 53rd minute, but his effort was also repelled by the Villa goalkeeper.
The result proved reflective of the underlying metrics, with Villa slightly edging possession of the game's clear-cut opportunities. The visitors accumulated 1.72 xG compared to Palace's 1.5 xG, indicating an even contest that could easily have tilted either way. The goalless outcome represented a fair reflection of the balance of chances created across the ninety minutes, with neither team able to capitalise on their respective attacking opportunities.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).