We use privacy-friendly analytics to understand traffic. With your consent we also load Google Analytics. No analytics cookies are set until you accept. See our privacy policy.
Premier League 2025/26— did the new arrivals deliver? We predict each signing's attacking output from their previous season (adjusted for league strength) and compare it to what they actually produced.
| Player | Move | Predicted | Actual | vs model |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Pedro FW | Brighton & Hove Albion → Chelsea | 0.41 | 0.65 | +0.24 |
| Anton Stach MF | TSG Hoffenheim → Leeds UnitedBundesliga→PL | 0.12 | 0.32 | +0.20 |
| Benjamin Šeško FW | RB Leipzig → Manchester UnitedBundesliga→PL | 0.38 | 0.57 | +0.19 |
| Patrick Dorgu DF | Lecce → Manchester UnitedSerie A→PL | 0.18 | 0.35 | +0.18 |
| Bryan Mbeumo FW | Brentford → Manchester United | 0.41 | 0.57 | +0.16 |
| Malick Thiaw DF | Milan → Newcastle UnitedSerie A→PL | 0.03 | 0.16 | +0.14 |
| Diego Gómez FW | Inter Miami CF → Brighton & Hove AlbionMLS→PL | 0.22 | 0.35 | +0.13 |
| Omari Hutchinson FW | Ipswich Town → Nottingham Forest | 0.19 | 0.32 | +0.13 |
| Nicolò Savona DF | Juventus → Nottingham ForestSerie A→PL | 0.07 | 0.17 | +0.10 |
| Habib Diarra MF | RC Strasbourg → SunderlandLigue 1→PL | 0.13 | 0.23 | +0.10 |
| Marc Guéhi DF | Crystal Palace → Manchester City | 0.11 | 0.19 | +0.08 |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin FW | Everton → Leeds United | 0.40 | 0.48 | +0.08 |
| Rayan Cherki MF | Olympique Lyonnais → Manchester CityLigue 1→PL | 0.53 | 0.59 | +0.06 |
| James Justin DF | Leicester City → Leeds United | 0.10 | 0.16 | +0.06 |
| Abdukodir Khusanov DF | RC Lens → Manchester CityLigue 1→PL | 0.02 | 0.07 | +0.05 |
| Ladislav Krejčí DF | Girona FC → WolverhamptonLa Liga→PL | 0.09 | 0.13 | +0.03 |
| Alejandro Garnacho FW | Manchester United → Chelsea | 0.47 | 0.50 | +0.03 |
| Reinildo Mandava DF | Atlético Madrid → SunderlandLa Liga→PL | 0.01 | 0.04 | +0.03 |
| Cristhian Mosquera DF | Valencia → ArsenalLa Liga→PL | 0.01 | 0.04 | +0.03 |
| Florian Wirtz MF | Bayer 04 Leverkusen → LiverpoolBundesliga→PL | 0.45 | 0.48 | +0.03 |
| Miloš Kerkez DF | Bournemouth → Liverpool | 0.13 | 0.15 | +0.03 |
| Adrien Truffert DF | Stade Rennais → BournemouthLigue 1→PL | 0.11 | 0.14 | +0.03 |
| Gabriel Gudmundsson DF | Lille → Leeds UnitedLigue 1→PL | 0.07 | 0.10 | +0.03 |
| Martín Zubimendi MF | Real Sociedad → ArsenalLa Liga→PL | 0.11 | 0.14 | +0.02 |
| Jaka Bijol DF | Udinese → Leeds UnitedSerie A→PL | 0.07 | 0.09 | +0.02 |
| Tijjani Reijnders MF | Milan → Manchester CitySerie A→PL | 0.33 | 0.35 | +0.02 |
| Emmanuel Agbadou DF | Stade de Reims → WolverhamptonLigue 1→PL | 0.05 | 0.07 | +0.02 |
| Yéremy Pino FW | Villarreal → Crystal PalaceLa Liga→PL | 0.37 | 0.38 | +0.01 |
| Pascal Groß MF | Borussia Dortmund → Brighton & Hove AlbionBundesliga→PL | 0.27 | 0.28 | +0.01 |
| Omar Alderete DF | Getafe → SunderlandLa Liga→PL | 0.07 | 0.08 | +0.01 |
| Liam Delap FW | Ipswich Town → Chelsea | 0.37 | 0.38 | +0.01 |
| Kyle Walker-Peters DF | Southampton → West Ham United | 0.10 | 0.11 | +0.01 |
| Jackson Tchatchoua DF | Hellas Verona → WolverhamptonSerie A→PL | 0.10 | 0.11 | +0.00 |
| Lutsharel Geertruida DF | RB Leipzig → SunderlandBundesliga→PL | 0.08 | 0.08 | +0.00 |
| Axel Tuanzebe DF | Ipswich Town → Burnley | 0.06 | 0.05 | -0.00 |
| Jacob Ramsey MF | Aston Villa → Newcastle United | 0.22 | 0.21 | -0.00 |
| Soungoutou Magassa MF | AS Monaco → West Ham UnitedLigue 1→PL | 0.07 | 0.06 | -0.01 |
| Kyle Walker DF | Manchester City → Burnley | 0.06 | 0.05 | -0.01 |
| Kevin Danso DF | RC Lens → Tottenham HotspurLigue 1→PL | 0.05 | 0.04 | -0.01 |
| Lesley Ugochukwu MF | Southampton → Burnley | 0.14 | 0.13 | -0.01 |
| Granit Xhaka MF | Bayer 04 Leverkusen → SunderlandBundesliga→PL | 0.16 | 0.14 | -0.02 |
| Rayan Aït Nouri DF | Wolverhampton → Manchester City | 0.21 | 0.18 | -0.02 |
| Xavi Simons MF | RB Leipzig → Tottenham HotspurBundesliga→PL | 0.39 | 0.36 | -0.04 |
| Piero Hincapié DF | Bayer 04 Leverkusen → ArsenalBundesliga→PL | 0.14 | 0.10 | -0.04 |
| Andrey Santos MF | RC Strasbourg → ChelseaLigue 1→PL | 0.23 | 0.18 | -0.05 |
| Adam Armstrong FW | Southampton → Wolverhampton | 0.28 | 0.23 | -0.05 |
| Bafodé Diakité DF | Lille → BournemouthLigue 1→PL | 0.08 | 0.01 | -0.06 |
| Mohammed Kudus FW | West Ham United → Tottenham Hotspur | 0.37 | 0.31 | -0.06 |
| Conor Gallagher MF | Atlético Madrid → Tottenham HotspurLa Liga→PL | 0.25 | 0.18 | -0.07 |
| Mateus Fernandes MF | Southampton → West Ham United | 0.25 | 0.16 | -0.08 |
| Jeremie Frimpong DF | Bayer 04 Leverkusen → LiverpoolBundesliga→PL | 0.25 | 0.16 | -0.09 |
| Valentín Castellanos FW | Lazio → West Ham UnitedSerie A→PL | 0.53 | 0.42 | -0.11 |
| Dan Ndoye FW | Bologna → Nottingham ForestSerie A→PL | 0.30 | 0.18 | -0.12 |
| Dwight McNeil FW | Everton → | 0.33 | 0.20 | -0.13 |
| Matheus Cunha FW | Wolverhampton → Manchester United | 0.52 | 0.39 | -0.13 |
| Evann Guessand FW | Nice → Aston VillaLigue 1→PL | 0.40 | 0.23 | -0.17 |
| Joshua King MF | Toulouse → FulhamLigue 1→PL | 0.47 | 0.30 | -0.17 |
| Dango Ouattara FW | Bournemouth → Brentford | 0.64 | 0.46 | -0.18 |
| Hugo Ekitiké FW | Eintracht Frankfurt → LiverpoolBundesliga→PL | 0.85 | 0.67 | -0.18 |
| Thierno Barry FW | Villarreal → EvertonLa Liga→PL | 0.64 | 0.44 | -0.19 |
| Nick Woltemade FW | VfB Stuttgart → Newcastle UnitedBundesliga→PL | 0.60 | 0.41 | -0.20 |
| Anthony Elanga FW | Nottingham Forest → Newcastle United | 0.44 | 0.20 | -0.24 |
| Eberechi Eze MF | Crystal Palace → Arsenal | 0.63 | 0.34 | -0.29 |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen FW | Wolverhampton → Crystal Palace | 0.48 | 0.18 | -0.30 |
| Noni Madueke FW | Chelsea → Arsenal | 0.72 | 0.24 | -0.48 |
Attacking output = non-penalty xG + expected assists per 90. Prediction applies our persistence and league-strength factors to the player's prior season. Minimum 900 minutes in both seasons. Goalkeepers and purely defensive value are not covered.