Transfer report card

Premier League 2024/25— did the new arrivals deliver? We predict each signing's attacking output from their previous season (adjusted for league strength) and compare it to what they actually produced.

Signings tracked

Model correlation

0.81

predicted vs actual

Avg error

0.09

output per 90

Player	Move	Predicted	Actual	vs model
Mikel Merino MF	Real Sociedad → ArsenalLa Liga→PL	0.15	0.61	+0.46
Ismaïla Sarr FW	Olympique de Marseille → Crystal PalaceLigue 1→PL	0.26	0.70	+0.44
Savinho FW	Girona FC → Manchester CityLa Liga→PL	0.30	0.59	+0.29
Marcus Rashford MF	Manchester United → Aston Villa	0.30	0.51	+0.21
Facundo Buonanotte MF	Brighton & Hove Albion → Leicester City	0.24	0.43	+0.19
Nikola Milenković DF	Fiorentina → Nottingham ForestSerie A→PL	0.02	0.19	+0.17
Joshua Zirkzee FW	Bologna → Manchester UnitedSerie A→PL	0.28	0.44	+0.16
Jadon Sancho FW	Borussia Dortmund → ChelseaBundesliga→PL	0.20	0.35	+0.15
Maxence Lacroix DF	VfL Wolfsburg → Crystal PalaceBundesliga→PL	0.03	0.17	+0.13
Dominic Solanke FW	Bournemouth → Tottenham Hotspur	0.53	0.63	+0.10
Cameron Archer MF	Sheffield United → Southampton	0.32	0.41	+0.10
Jørgen Strand Larsen FW	Celta Vigo → WolverhamptonLa Liga→PL	0.44	0.53	+0.10
Amadou Onana MF	Everton → Aston Villa	0.13	0.21	+0.09
Tosin Adarabioyo DF	Fulham → Chelsea	0.04	0.11	+0.07
Aaron Wan-Bissaka DF	Manchester United → West Ham United	0.07	0.14	+0.07
Orel Mangala MF	Nottingham Forest → Everton	0.05	0.12	+0.06
Riccardo Calafiori DF	Bologna → ArsenalSerie A→PL	0.10	0.16	+0.06
Sepp van den Berg DF	1. FSV Mainz 05 → BrentfordBundesliga→PL	0.07	0.12	+0.05
Carlos Soler MF	Paris Saint-Germain → West Ham UnitedLigue 1→PL	0.20	0.25	+0.05
Matthijs de Ligt DF	FC Bayern München → Manchester UnitedBundesliga→PL	0.09	0.14	+0.05
Caleb Okoli MF	Frosinone → Leicester CitySerie A→PL	0.02	0.05	+0.04
Max Kilman DF	Wolverhampton → West Ham United	0.07	0.11	+0.03
Manuel Ugarte MF	Paris Saint-Germain → Manchester UnitedLigue 1→PL	0.06	0.09	+0.03
Boubakary Soumaré MF	Sevilla → Leicester CityLa Liga→PL	0.01	0.04	+0.03
Jordan Ayew MF	Crystal Palace → Leicester City	0.24	0.26	+0.02
Daichi Kamada MF	Lazio → Crystal PalaceSerie A→PL	0.17	0.19	+0.02
İlkay Gündoğan MF	Barcelona → Manchester CityLa Liga→PL	0.36	0.37	+0.01
Elliot Anderson MF	Newcastle United → Nottingham Forest	0.25	0.27	+0.01
Jean-Clair Todibo DF	Nice → West Ham UnitedLigue 1→PL	0.03	0.04	+0.01
Iliman Ndiaye FW	Olympique de Marseille → EvertonLigue 1→PL	0.28	0.28	+0.00
Guido Rodríguez MF	Real Betis → West Ham UnitedLa Liga→PL	0.03	0.03	-0.00
Victor Kristiansen MF	Bologna → Leicester CitySerie A→PL	0.06	0.06	-0.01
Dara O'Shea MF	Burnley → Ipswich Town	0.06	0.05	-0.01
Arijanet Murić MF	Burnley → Ipswich Town	0.01	0.00	-0.01
Radu Drăguşin DF	Genoa → Tottenham HotspurSerie A→PL	0.06	0.03	-0.03
Joachim Andersen DF	Crystal Palace → Fulham	0.09	0.06	-0.03
Pedro Neto FW	Wolverhampton → Chelsea	0.46	0.42	-0.04
Noussair Mazraoui DF	FC Bayern München → Manchester UnitedBundesliga→PL	0.14	0.09	-0.05
Sander Berge MF	Burnley → Fulham	0.12	0.07	-0.05
Ederson MF	Atalanta → Manchester CitySerie A→PL	0.11	0.03	-0.08
Jens Cajuste MF	Napoli → Ipswich TownSerie A→PL	0.19	0.07	-0.13

Attacking output = non-penalty xG + expected assists per 90. Prediction applies our persistence and league-strength factors to the player's prior season. Minimum 900 minutes in both seasons. Goalkeepers and purely defensive value are not covered.