1. FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusenprediction

Bundesliga 2025/26 · Matchday 5 · Sat, 10 Oct 2026

Model forecast

win / draw / loss probabilities from the rolling-strength model

1. FSV Mainz 05Bayer 04 Leverkusen

1. FSV Mainz 05 38%Draw 22%Bayer 04 Leverkusen 40%

Expected score

3–2

Over 2.5 goals

84%

Both teams score

80%

The rolling-strength model makes Bayer 04 Leverkusen the favourites at 40% — 1. FSV Mainz 05 38%, the draw 22% and Bayer 04 Leverkusen 40%. The most likely scoreline is 3–2, with a 84% chance of more than 2.5 goals. These are the model's own probabilities — analysis only, not advice of any kind.