Thrillers

Bundesliga 2023/24 · 308 matches ranked by drama score — how far the eventual result was from likely, how often the lead changed, and how hard win probability swung late on.

How this season's matches graded

SInstant classic · 21 (7%)
AThriller · 44 (14%)
BLively · 102 (33%)
CRoutine · 90 (29%)
DDamp squib · 51 (17%)

Showing the top 50 of 308. Every match's grade is also shown on its match page.

How the drama score works

Each match is scored 0–100 from its minute-by-minute win-probability replay. Five ingredients are blended:

Comeback (30%) — how far the probability of the final result fell during the game.
Lead changes (20%) — equalisers and go-ahead goals from level.
Late drama (20%) — the biggest swing from a goal or red card after the 75th minute.
Tension (20%) — how open the outcome stayed from the hour mark.
Goals (10%) — total goals, capped at six.

Grade thresholds are fixed across every league and season (S ≈ top 5%, A ≈ next 15%), so an S means the same thing in the Premier League and in La Liga. See the glossary for details.